And another Thing...
Why you should be skeptical of weather forecasts
"Warm winter" and other fallacies
Sep. 18, 2008 - by Michael Coulter – buzz Writer
Last week, some scientists over in Geneva decided to see if they could recreate the big bang or a black hole ... um, maybe one or the other, maybe both, I really couldn’t begin to tell you even though I sort of skimmed an article about it. I don’t understand any of it much, and I glaze over like a freaking doughnut when any kind of information like that attempts to enter my mind. I do know that many people out there were against this experiment, and some even predicted it could lead to the end of the world. Actually, that sort of talk really made me feel better and safer. The safest way to avoid the end of the world is to predict it’s going to happen every damned day. No one is worth much of a damn at predicting anything of any kind.
When it comes to making useless predictions, I prefer to stay clear the hell away from any sort of actual science, fake or otherwise. I’d much rather put my faith in the Farmer’s Almanac. It’s probably not especially accurate either, but at least it’s written in a way a redneck like me can actually understand. I’m sure at one time in the almanac’s 192 years in business, it was considered relevant and racy, but now it just sort of seems quaint and comical, you know, just like Madonna.
This year, the almanac is predicting a cold winter. It actually says, “Numb’s the word!” for much of the U.S. Well, hell’s bells, if they found a way to sort of randomly predict the weather and make it rhyme at the same time, you know that shit has to be true. Besides that, they claim an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for their forecasts. They don’t really say how they came up with this accuracy figure and since it doesn’t rhyme, I have to be a tad skeptical.
Either way, they predict that at least two-thirds of the country will be colder than average this winter. Geez Louise, is this freaking global warming good for anything? I’d at least hoped we could have a few nice and mild winters before the planet went into the crapper, but it looks like we’re just gonna get really cold before we heat up and become a fiery ball. At least the far west and the southeast are in line for normal readings. Regardless, the editor says this winter is going to be catastrophic for millions. Fine, he doesn’t say why or how, but still.
They actually break the country down into regions and tell you what will probably happen. By “probably happen,” they basically mean “may or may not happen.” The National Weather Service predicts it will be a warmer-than-normal winter, so at least someone is going to be wrong this time around. I love a good controversy. I know the weather service has a lot of radar and maps and things like that. The almanac has ... I’m not sure they really mention exactly how they come up with their forecasts, but let’s just say they have their ways. I’m guessing some sort of Voodoo or possibly a dartboard.
First of all, from a personal point of view, I’m not completely sure I’m able to tell the difference between a cold and a really cold winter. If I walk out every morning between now and March and it’s 15 degrees instead of 17 degrees, the whole difference is sort of negligible. If it’s in the negative digits for about three months, then I think that would be something even my dumb ass might notice. Even when they say it’s supposed to be an unusually warm winter, it still seems pretty damned cold to me during most of it.
In all fairness, I’m not sure the almanac is any more correct or incorrect than any of the other weather information we get. Far be it for me to be cynical, but it seems like the weather folks on television seem to talk up the worst case scenario of just about every weather pattern that comes along these days, so who’s to blame the almanac for following suit? Besides, the almanac is also sort of entertaining reading ... at least if you have a very broad definition of entertaining.
I remember down south they used to give them away. In fact, they were so popular and so accessible that we’d usually end up with seven or eight copies that were exactly the same. There were usually some recipes that involved vast amounts of butter, helpful household tips that weren’t especially helpful, inspirational stories that didn’t seem all that inspiring and a few jokes that really didn’t make me laugh. It was basically the Reader’s Digest with a few bold climate predictions thrown in to make it seem relevant. Like I said, it’s probably as good as anything else when it’s all said and done.
There’s that old saying, everyone talks about the weather, but no one ever does anything about it. I suppose it’s more of a joke than a saying, but whatever. Actually, it does sort of strike me as a bit of a joke. I can make fun of the almanac all I want, but I’ve still yet to see anyone predict the weather past a couple of weeks with any accuracy. If nothing else, it’s something to think about while I pull all those old sweaters out of the closet.