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Oscar Coverage
81st Annual Academy Awards predictions
7:00 pm Feb 19 - by Keith Hollenkamp, Matt Carey, Sarah Gorr, Scott Frankel, Katharine O'Brian and Andy Herren – buzz Writers
This Sunday night marks the 81st Annual Academy Awards, a night for the best of the cinema world to come together and celebrate the best films and performances of the 2008. This year Hugh Jackman has the honor of hosting the event (more on that later) and the even though some of us question the nominations of the Academy, it should prove to be a entertaining evening. A few of us here at buzz/the217 got together and formed our own little “Oscar Squad,”and picked our predictions on who will win the elusive trophy as well as who we think should win, as they always don’t match up. We even threw in whom we think got snubbed by not even getting a nomination. Here are our predictions:
Best Actor
Nominees:
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke. Everyone loves a comeback story, and Rourke certainly has one. From ‘80s pretty boy to battered, middle-aged has-been, Mickey Rourke’s journey back to the spotlight has not been easy, and he still has a long way to go. Still, his performance got rave reviews, and even though it felt like he was playing himself at times, he brought incredible vulnerability to a character that could have just been a one-dimensional screw up.
Who Should Win: Sean Penn. He usually just broods his way through a movie, but in Milk, he actually seemed to stretch himself as an actor. Even in the 21st century, many actors are still intimidated by the idea of playing a gay character, but Penn gave his all in this performance. He brought heart, passion, charisma and optimism to an American hero who, until recently, many people had forgotten.
Who Got Snubbed: Michael Sheen did fantastic work in Frost/Nixon but has received very little recognition for it. It could be argued that Frank Langella overshadowed him, but Sheen more than held his own. His David Frost is full of tackiness and optimism, striking a perfect balance opposite Nixon’s paranoia and determination to redeem himself.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Melissa Leo in Frozen River
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in The Reader
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet, The Reader. It’s Winslet’s year. The momentum she has accumulated throughout awards season seems to be smashing the hopes of The Devil Wears Prada duo Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep, although one of those two may pull a surprise upset. It’s a shame that Winslet is going to win for a film as lukewarmly received as The Reader, but hey…it’s a Holocaust movie, and even Winslet herself joked on Extras that the only way she will win an Oscar is if she does such a movie.
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married or Meryl Streep, Doubt or Kate Winslet, The Reader. Coinciding with the strong competition in this category, the staff at the buzz was completely torn when it came down to Best Actress picks. No love was shown for Angelina Jolie or for Melissa Leo (whose honor is in the nomination itself), making staffers indecisive between Kate Winslet, Anne Hathaway (this writer’s OVERWHELMING choice), and Meryl Streep. One of these three will surely win, yet it’s not so clear who deserves it the most. Has Bride Wars hurt Hathaway’s chances? Will Winslet win for a relatively weak movie? Can Streep do anything wrong? We will all find out on the big night.
Who Got Snubbed: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road. Winslet is easily the best thing about this already-strong movie, as her performance is brave, unwavering, and heartbreaking. It is an absolute crime of cinema that she wasn’t nominated. Shame on you, Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The Reader, really? Psssshhhh.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight This category has been decided for quite some time. Ledger has swept every award show yet, and the Oscars will be no different. This is the greatest villain performance since Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs, and Hopkins took the Best Actor statue in 1991. Regardless of any naysayer who thinks that Heath is only going to win because of his tragic death last January, the academy is picking the best performance here, and there is a miniscule chance of any surprises in this category.
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger. An argument could be made that this category has the most impressive performances from it’s nominees, but Ledger stands far and above the rest with his intense, terrifying and oftentimes hilarious performance as The Joker. Ledger’s performance in The Dark Knight is filled with iconic moments, such as the pencil trick or the interrogation scene. Ledger isn’t even on screen nearly as long as Christian Bale or Aaron Eckhart, but his performance is the one that sticks with you immediately when the credits roll. In any other year, we could’ve picked any of these performances for Oscar glory, but there will be no stopping the Ledger train.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams in Doubt
Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona The most loaded category by far, it posed real difficulty for the five of us to come to a decision. But in the end Cruz – the unstable, bicurious ex-girlfriend of Javier Bardem in Barcelona – wins out. Cruz is always stunning on screen but doesn’t have an award to show for it. The only thing that may work against her is that Barcelona wasn’t released during the winter “award season” (it was released in August). However, the fact that she was still able to find her way onto the ballot shows the punch that her performance gives. Erratic yet sexy, Cruz will win the Academy’s vote.
Who Should Win: Viola Davis in Doubt In her very short-lived role, Davis is pivotal in the development of Doubt. Her performance as the mother of the suspected child molested boy had audiences wondering why her role wasn’t bigger. When tears and other liquid secretions ooze out of every known orifice on one’s face, it tends to be an emotion-packed performance. Davis may never get another acting opportunity of this caliber. She should win this year.
Amy Adams of Doubt is a huge threat considering her breakout year. Taraji P. Henson of Benjamin Button is fantastic, but the movie as a whole may get overlooked when push comes to shove. And Marisa Tomei is a smoking hot 40+ year old, but her “Supporting Actress” Oscar for My Cousin Vinny makes her less threatening.
This category is by far the most up-for-grabs.
Best Music (Song)
Nominees:
“Down to Earth” from Wall-e
“Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire
“O Saya” from Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: “O Saya” from Slumdog Millionaire With only three nominees, this year's "Best Song" category is pretty sparse. Perhaps in an attempt to shorten this year's ceremony or perhaps out of sheer neglect, the nominee list includes only two songs from Slumdog Millionaire ("O Saya" and "Jai Ho") and one from Wall-E ("Down to Earth"). The clear winner, however, seems to be "O Saya". With Slumdog as the general favorite among award shows and M.I.A.'s growing popularity and respectability, not to mention the excitement of a new-to-Hollywood sound, "O Saya" is the stronger of the Slumdog nominees and it seems likely that Wall-E will be overlooked since the film relied so little on soundtrack in general.
Who Should Win/Who Got Snubbed: “The Wrestler” by Bruce Springsteen. Who should win, however, is an entirely different beast as who the Oscar Squad and the Golden Globes think is the real deserving winner wasn't even nominated. This is of course the rasping and emotional track, "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen from the film The Wrestler. Perfectly suited to the film it was made for and perfectly suited to Rourke's stellar performance, none of this year's nominees can hold up in comparison. Springsteen's rough voice and the folksy simplicity of the lyrics are too perfectly matched to Randy's broken body for the other nominees to stand a chance. Why it got snubbed is anyone's guess but hopefully we can all agree that it's absolutely ludicrous.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall-E
"Best Original Screenplay" is a bit of a joke this year as the likeliest winner sticks out like a Jonas brother in a boxing ring. While the quality of the other films whose screenplays were nominated is just as high, odd picks like Wall-E, a mostly dialogue-less film, and In Bruges seem unlikely winners. While Happy-Go-Lucky and Frozen River have gotten some acclaim with their various nominations at the other awards shows, they haven't managed to generate the interest or rack up the wins the way Milk has. With such slim competition, Milk is sure to be the Academy favorite.
While, out of the nominees, the Oscar Squad has generally agreed that Milk is also the most deserving, one can't help but point out the obvious snub: Charlie Kaufman's newest masterpiece, Synecdoche New York. With its limited release and short theatre stint, it was doomed to be overlooked by just about everyone, but however much one liked Milk or any of the other nominees, it is pure injustice that one of the most creative, original, and beautifully irreverent minds in film won't even be given the chance to receive his due. Synecdoche New York, in traditional Kaufman fashion, takes several giant steps away from typical narrative cinema and even out-does his most complex piece, Adaptation. Comparable to an ouroboros and little else, Synecdoche was royally snubbed.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Who will win: Frost/Nixon
Who should win: Frost/Nixon
Frost/Nixon should and will win the Adapted Screenplay category. The ability to adapt a dialogue and character-driven play into an even more effective movie makes screenwriter Peter Morgan the winner. Every line of dialogue has its audience leaning forward, and every subtle character twitch turns us into journalists ourselves – studying, analyzing, waiting for what comes next. Parts of the real Nixon interviews were incorporated, and much of the play carried over to the screen. Frost/Nixon deserves to win this category.
The two movies that threaten Frost/Nixon are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire. Benjamin Button was made into an entertaining and well-executed 2+ hour film adapted solely from the 20 or so page short story by F. Scott Fitzgerald. Where credit is earned, credit is due, and screenwriter Eric Roth deserves acclamation. Additionally, because the winner of either the “Adapted” or “Original Screenplay” has been known win the “Best Picture” award, Slumdog Millionaire is always a threat. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy just casts their votes for “Adapted Screenplay” and “Picture” as one. But if there’s one screenplay and film to “upset” the Slumdog giant, it’s Frost/Nixon.
Best Animated Film
Nominees:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Who Will Win: Wall-E This one was one of the more easier categories to figure out. Bolt was fun and Kung Fu Panda had some amazing voice work by Jack Black, but none of them even come close to the quality of Wall-E. Hell, Wall-E is better than some of the films nominated for Best Picture. Come Oscar night, there is no question who will take home the Best Animated Film award, and that is our little robot friend Wall-E
Who Should Win: Wall-E When we were casting our votes for this category, each one of us quickly shouted out Wall-E…except for one of us. One vote was cast for Kung-Fu Panda. Too bad it was still five against one. Wall-E is the clear victor here, and that honor is rightly deserved.
Best Picture
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire This is Slumdog’s year. Danny Boyle’s epic tale of fate and love has charmed millions and swept the other awards shows, and we think it is the best contender to win this year’s big prize.
Who Should Win: We all disagreed on this one. Some thought Milk, some thought Frost/Nixon, some even thought The Wrestler (which definitely got snubbed).
BEST ALTERNATIVE HOST?: AN OSCAR SQUAD "WTF"
The host for this year's Oscars isn't the dry witted Jon Stewart, the classic Billy Crystal, or the energetic Ellen DeGeneres. No, the host this year is none other than... Hugh Jackman? That's right. Wolverine himself will be the master of ceremonies, a choice leaving just about everyone scratching their heads. It begs the question: what in the world is the Academy trying to say with this choice? One can just imagine a muttonchop, razor-claw sporting Jackman tap-dancing his way across the stage. There's no way that Jackman has the host-staying power of favorites like Crystal or Steve Martin. Who does the Oscar Squad want to see in Jackman's place? Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin in a "30 Rock"-inspired co-hosting. In lieu of something too new, why not a return to Jon Stewart or his equally quick-witted cohort, Stephen Colbert? Hell, bring back Letterman, Chevy Chase, or even resurrect Bob Hope. Each of those choices make a lot more sense than Hugh Jackman. Yes, Jackman hosted the Tonys, but he's got a theatrical background so one can see the logic there. The buzz around the proverbial water-cooler says that the script for this year's show is looking to pare down the humor. Apparently, the Oscars' pattern of recent years of being overly conservative and boring needs to be MORE overly conservative and boring... I don't know about you, but I can't wait.
Sound Off
Last post: Feb. 23, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Miranda (unregistered user) said on Feb. 23, 2009 at 11:10 am:
Meryl Streep should of won :'(
I started crying when she lost
BeeGirl (unregistered user) said on Feb. 23, 2009 at 6:44 pm:
I think Jackman did a great job hosting. I don't really understand the dislike, but personally, from an avid watcher of the Oscars, I found him to be a wonderfully entertaining host. Whats wrong with a new host? Branch out, people!


Jeff Brandt (Jeff Brandt) said on Feb. 20, 2009 at 4:25 pm:
Definitely agree that Viola Davis should win Best Supporting Actress. That would be pretty exciting if she did.